← HVN Season Revelfest Tourney #1
Water FractalTier 1
at HVN Season Revelfest Tourney #1
decks
2
(25.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
4-2-0
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.9%
avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
52.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1252
· median 1252
· range 1222–1281
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1181
Q1 1266
Q3 1380
1508
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Arcane | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 12.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 51.6% | +1.2 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.2 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
